It was finished decades of board of Yeltsin. îe has left having appointed the successor. Now this choice should be authorized by people of Russia on general election. Alas in hands of bourgeoisie there are enough opportunities that it has taken place. All dirty of the nitty-gritty of politics is started that in Russia of nothing has changed.
If we want to understand, that actually occurs today in Russia first of all it is necessary to look at a condition of the world market of raw material -- for export of petroleum, gas, aluminum, a wood, nikelja, steel hire -- bring the basic income to the Russian capitalists. The political situation in Russia reflects growth and fall of the prices for raw material, and, first of all, petroleum and gas.
The policy of government Kirienko of 1998, directed on reception western credits at any cost, was finished by that than it was finished -- in conditions when the price of ton of petroleum has fallen up to 50 dollars at the cost price of 30$ -- 50$ was suddenly found out, that the Russian rouble inflated faster by air, rather than natural gas. Not considering seriously in a manufacturing industry, it was possible to ascertain prospect of the western investments, that the economy of Russia has gone to impasse. Crisis was inevitable also it has taken place.
Then we appeared witnesses of a "historical" victory of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation -- Yeltsin has changed to the true principle: " to not concede on a step", and has offered a compromise figure of the prime minister. There was Primakov. In it there is nothing surprising. The situation was completely hopeless for anyone bourgeois the politician, appeared at levers of authority. Quadruple devaluation of rouble, that is the most severe reduction of salaries and social payments, certainly, stimulates economy, however, that it has taken place, one triviality -- is necessary for the investment. But, money whence might undertake? From torn to shreds stock exchange? From few escaped banks which have turned, as a matter of fact, in financial settlements centers not giving credits on any conditions? From the frightened western speculators who only, what burnt on securities, and now looked at "the developing markets" as on a fiend? Strangled by taxes and the plundered industry enterprises?
Certainly, after fall of rouble process of replacement of the import goods domestic began, earlier standing idle assembly lines and shops of many factories were started. But as though these goods their progress on foreign markets were not cheap demanded money. Not speaking that the most part of factories with the countries of the CIS was not modernized 10-20 years and simply it is not capable to let out competitive production, in easy and the food-processing industry money to advertising are necessary, in heavy mechanical engineering - long-term credits and the state guarantees (it in conditions when Russia appeared in conditions partial defolta) etc. Crash was inevitable.
But there was a miracle -- because of time stabilization in Southeast Asia - the prices for petroleum and gas have begun to grow, all over again slowly, and then all is faster and faster. To Russia huge money, and for them as it is necessary have rushed, severe struggle began. The triple rise in crude petroleum prices has increased net profit of petroleum oligarches by in 5-7 times. The basic part of this profit was received with the members of "family" which has succeeded on mortgaging auctions of 95-96 years, when for nothing (5-10% of market cost) were sold out the largest oil-extracting companies and oil refining factories. Them sold in haste, being afraid of a failure of presidential elections of 1996. Infringements of the legislation, including a dishonest competition to the "another's" including foreign companies, make return of these companies rather possible from the legal point of view. And despite of all cries about "revise of results of a privatization" this process will be maintained by the western governments, is especial if to guarantee to their petroleum monopolies "equal in rights" participation in a secondary privatization.
Actually such situation arranges all except for "family". At expected export of crude petroleum about 240 million tons, net profit of oligarches as it is easy to estimate, approximately twice will exceed all profitable part of the Russian budget for this year. Dews of the prices has resulted not in growth, and to decrease of incomes of the state on 1 billion roubles for one year. Vice-premier " on protection of economic interests of family " Aksenenko, supervising fuel industry, only recently, after desperate resistance, has gone on increase of the export duty with 5 up to 10 dollars for ton though at the today's prices even the rate $80-100 will be insufficient. Oil refining factories are loaded from force on half, in the country does not suffice black oil, factories, and here and there already and hospitals, schools and apartment houses are disconnected from power supply. The budget suffers, and money flow away abroad.
It is necessary to be very naive person to believe in disinterestedness of Primakov and the more so of Luzhkov. Large financial structures are interested in redistribution of the monetary flows petroleum and connected to them. Gusinsky is only top of an iceberg. Some tens billions dollars -- a tidbit, both for financiers and for industrialists if it will get to them in hands. If today this money were invested in the Russian industry, it sharply would stimulate (at presence of some additional conditions) the western investments for only the lunatic may put in the country from which "run" money. But not only owners of factories, but also workers are interested in financial injections, so new workplaces, growth of salaries. But it is not enough of it. August crisis was caused by negative trading balance of Russia - today it is positive as never -- Russia sells (petroleum) much and buys (sharply risen in price cars) a little. But thus the rouble let and slowly, but continues to fall! It means, that or the huge part of the profit and is not converted from dollars in roubles, or the Central Bank actively prints money for a covering of budgetary deficiency. (Let is remind, that from export of petroleum to us does not remain not a stiver). However, it is quite possible, that actually Primakov and was not going to go so far. But the question on authority has risen an edge.
In itself "the sacred right of a private property" does not give in Russia of any guarantees. "Spitefully adjusted authority easily may select petroleum deposits appoint reasonable rates of taxes, or is simple block "pipe" belonging to it "Transoil". Therefore now as never before authority is necessary. Persistent hearings, that "family" in every possible way take up and to the second fat piece of the Russian economy -- to "Gazprom" especially go. But how to keep this authority? The president is weak, the opposition is consolidated, compelled exile Primakov has brought to him huge popularity... In this situation the family has found a brilliant course.
Naturally enough, that disintegration of the USSR, its defeat in the cold war, have resulted in occurrence in Russia of revanchist moods. It is difficult to divide nostalgia on "the country of won socialism" and "great power" -- all propaganda machine CC of the CPSU with 40 for 80th years worked on an identification of these concepts. These moods have no the expressed class character and are distributed in all layers of a society. August crisis, war in Yugoslavia, expansion of the NATO to the East, discrimination of Russian in Baltic and Kazakhstan, economic and everyday difficulties connected with occurrence of new borders -- all this strengthened revanchist moods in a society. In this situation of anyone "strong" and the decisive step causes enthusiastic reaction in a society. Historically sympathies and support of this part of a society got either to communists, or ex-generals (like Lebed'), but recently practically all forces (Yeltsin, Primakov, Luzhkov, etc.) have actively played on this political field.
On the other hand, threat of branch of numerous national autonomies, constant economic blackmail of a leadership of republics of Northern Caucasus, Tatarstan, Bashkiria, the numerous tax privileges contradicting to the constitution laws (for example introduction by the president of Ingushetia Aushevym... polygamies), have generated the general tendency to unification of the federal structure of Russia among of regional and federal establishment.
And, at last, in large Russian cities in during late ten years racism has blossomed. The mass emigration from covered with wars, famine, unemployment of Tadjikistan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, the Chechen Republic, Ossetia, Abkhazia has caused weight of people ready on all for the sake of a roof above a head and a piece of bread. Because of disproportionately high prices for habitation (and the majority of local inhabitants are its proprietors and use it almost free-of-charge), they may not find suitable work and go to a criminal gangs. Certainly, this fact is in every possible way emphasized by local press, militia and authority in mercenary political interests. As result -- the stereotype generated and supported by press "savages, gangsters, addicts, shopkeepers and sadists".
And in the itself Chechen Republic the situation has strongly changed since 1995. Destruction Dzhohara Dudaeva -- the bright national leader who has risen above interclan contradictions, secular the politician using huge authority on the Chechen Republic, has resulted to that after a victory of 1996 -- the Chechen Republic appeared in hands not under inspection to anybody of field commanders and elders of clans. Productive forces were destroyed completely and it together with uncertainty of the status of the Chechen Republic and economic blockade has resulted to that basic articles of the income of the inhabitants who have lost work became robbery, trade in people, handicraft distillation of petroleum, an attack on taking place trains, distribution of false money, drugs and so on. For emissarov of the extremist Islamic organizations and political adventurers like of Berezovsky gold era has come. So last has transferred Basaevu 1 million dollars on "a computerization of the Chechen Republic", and repeatedly, having the status of the special representative of the president, in a pointed manner redeemed hostages. In result situation in the Chechen Republic became unstable, by means of TV the image of the country as nursery of criminality and gangsterism -- shelters of murderers and sadists is created. Officers and generals, in the majority the, participants of wars in the Chechen Republic and Afghanistan, were ready to new ranks, awards, special salary, not limited opportunities to write off the plundered army property.
So everyone were ready to "Small victorious war" -- it is necessary to find a casus belli. Soon headed by Basaev and Hattab Islamic extremists have intruded into Dagestan. At this moment military investigation has intercepted conversation of Berezovsky with Basaev by the satellite phone in which last asked urgent political support, referring on the the promise. Really federal armies showed extreme passivity in the beginning of the company, actions of insurgents appeared " is accomplished unexpected " for army having by tens satellites -- spies. The majority located on border of Dagestan of divisions of OMON quickly receded, or simply ran up. However, as a result of heroic struggle badly armed, but resolutely adjusted Dagestan civil guardsmen, Vahhabits were rejected back. In many areas of the Chechen Republic have passed multithousand meetings under slogans of exile of religious extremists from the Chechen Republic, sharply negative position has taken traditional Sunit clergy, in these conditions Mashadov began to be declined for the benefit of urgent negotiations with a leadership of Russia about stabilization of a situation.
And then... Shown, probably, insufficient resoluteness Stepashin was poisoned in resignation. And arrival of the new prime minister -- Putin was marked by explosions of apartment houses in Moscow and Volgodonsk. It is possible to result uncountable set of reasons, that without support or direct participation of special services of Russia terrorist actions of such scale would be impossible. Precedent moreover is known when officers of FSB have put in pawn in a cellar of an apartment house in Ryazan similar Moscow the charge of an explosive and after they were seized by hands, have declared operation "as training". Soon arsons and provocations in Moscow and Saint Petersburg have resulted in displacement objectionable new a premiere, or faster something suspected, heads of the Municipal Department of Internal Affairs. Anyway, to hope that true originators of these terrible crimes will be found it is not necessary...
In some days expanded earlier on borders of the Chechen Republic army parts have gone over to the offensive. Using "the burnt ground" tactics they not having incurred essential losses have occupied, on this moment, all flat part of the Chechen Republic, excepting Grozny. Successes of the federal armies are connected to more rigid than in 1995 tactics of conducting war when with the help of bomber force and artillery the Chechen groups are systematically pushed aside in mountains without direct battle contact to them, discord in a military leadership of the Chechen Republic, the aggravation of contradictions between Vahhabit's groups and a local home guard controllable by elders also is available. While the first, maneuvering, leave from impacts of bombers, the second simply throw the weapon trying to keep in an integrity the houses during severe mountain winter.
In this dirty Putin does not disdain anything. So from prison the known thief -- the former mayor Grozny -- he is Gantamirov, earlier condemned for plunder of the means directed in 1995 on restoration of the Chechen Republic was released. In the chapter of group of criminals he actively participates now in reprisals against the fellow tribesmen.
Not having an opportunity as in 1996, to go on the conclusion of an armistice with Chechen Republic (Hasavjurt), because of changed public opinion, Putin will be compelled to wage war up to "victory" that is while war it becomes finally guerilla walfare. Certainly, as shows all experience kolonial'nyh wars, it will not solve any problems, neither for Chechens, nor for inhabitants of the next regions, moreover long-term guerilla the phase of war appears even more bloody and rigid.
It is possible to concern on any other business to results of parliamentary elections in Russia. One is obviously -- all dirtiest selective technologies were used in the widest scale. As against the previous elections, "the party of authority" went this time on elections under shauvinist-revanchist slogans. It was obvious to all, that two things are necessary for a victory at this elections: " idea consolidating a society " and support of governors. In the sum both the left and right parties traditionally collect at parliamentary elections approximately on a quarter of voices. This steady ratio is caused by the property and social status of voters. The poorest vote for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation -- rich for SPS (the Union of the right forces) and "Yabloko", the last besides take away the most part of voices of intelligence and student's youth.
The failure right at elections of 1996 was connected to only organizational reasons -- they have exposed some tens selective blocks from which only one could overcome a five-percentage barrier. Now right have made the appropriate conditions, having created SPS, except for that the order of registration of parties and selective associations that has reduced number of parties is the federal list in some times was sharply toughened. The system of a selective pledge that has facilitated the "independent" bourgeois promotion in one-mandatory districts was simultaneously entered.
The present war, as before, was developed for "centre". This electorate controllable earlier LDPR, NDR and, partly, the CPRF, was completely redivided. Luzhkov's "Otechestvo" ("Fatherland") and "All Russia", united in the summer the majority of governors, have created coalition (OVR) which after it has headed Primakov, became to an autumn the leader of pre-election race. Supporting strengthening of the state regulation they have easily won on the majority of former directors (and now owners) military enterprises and the large industry in general. The firm patriotic rate and struggle against persons of "the Caucasian ethnic" of Luzhkov, together in authority "moderate" Primakov and support of governors guaranteed it, appear, the sure victory at elections. However, sharp confrontation of Luzhkov and Primakov with "family", excitation on order Primakov then still a premiere, criminal case against Berezovsky, and the main thing motives stated in the first part, have compelled Kremlin to pass to the forced actions.
War was untied and for one and a half month the rating of trust to Putin has grown from 1,5% up to 45%. Simultaneously was new association "Unity" ("Bear" -- in popular speech) is created. Overwhelming majority of regions of Russia have state subsidy -- that is they to some extent they are financed from the federal budget (or, simply speaking, in their territory there are no deposits of petroleum). The mechanism of transfer of money (always depend exclusively on an arbitrariness of the government and the president, making the main lever of management of federation. The further is trivial. Under rigid pressure Berezovsky as personal emissary of Yeltsin, almost all governors went from OVR in "Unity". Exception have made, except for, certainly, Luzhkov, the governor of St. Petersburg -- Jakovlev, presidents of Tatarstan and Bashkiria -- industrially advanced regions strong independent of the Kremlin and the president of Ingushetia ethnically close to Chechens -- Aushev. Generous financial injections and, the main thing, all help in re-election on posts of governors were promised "fugitives". So, for example, at governor's elections to Primorski Krai working governor Nazdratenko not only has closed all opposition to him mass-media, but also the order has forbidden any propaganda for other candidates! At the same time both state TV-channels have open unprecedented campaign of discredit of top list OVR. Luzhkov and Jakovlev answered abuse with under inspection to them of channels.
But all was vain. Though as expected OVR has won Moscow, St. Petersburg, Tatarstan, Bashkiria and, certainly, in Ingushetia -- it appeared insufficiently. OVR has collected 13% of voices on the federal list and will have 14% of places in Duma. (50% of Duma it is selected under the list, and it is so much on majority system, and in one round). "Unity" has successfully acted in all other regions, having collected 23% of voices and has initially 17% of the Duma mandates, however, as a party of authority they may expect for inflow in the fraction of a part of formally independent deputies them in a Duma is 27%. This block any messenger of the program has no, its only position -- Putin's all-round support. In the best American traditions its three top list consists of Minister of Emergency Measures Shojgu, famous wrestlinger Karelin and not less known tax policeman Gurov. Definitely it is possible to tell one -- though all large parties, finally, have supported intrusion into the Chechen Republic -- voting for "Unity" is a vote of trust to Putin in his military company on Northern Caucasus. Terrible in words right populist Zhirinovsky this time has hardly passed in Duma.
On the "classical" right flank having huge financial resources "ES of Russia" SPS, focusing the selective company on youth, has achieved unexpected success having won 6% of places in Duma and having outstripped received 5% "Yabloko". If 5 years back liberal parties has opposition to the Chechen war now they actively support it.
Has won at elections of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. It has collected 24% of voices, against 22% four years back and will receive 26% of the Duma mandates. It is less than in a former Duma when more than hundreds parties not stepped 5% a barrier of have collected 45% of the voices divided later between winners. This time this parameter did not exceed 15%. The leadership of the CPRF has declared "updating" the electorate. Really if earlier "patriotic" voters voted either for the CPRF or for LDPR now they voted for "Unity". On data VTSIOM only 1,5% voting for the CPRF identify themselves as patriots, against 40% at "Unity". Despite of certain left shift of the CPRF electorate (partly due to failure RKRP), in large industrial centres and among youth its influence is weak.
Unexpectedness became that in 11 districts (including in some one-mandatory districts of Moscow and Saint Petersburg) the majority of voters have voted against all candidates, having broken thus elections. It, in particular, has taken place in district where the former deputy of Duma, member RKRP, Grigor'ev stood. It is probable, that it became reaction of voters to extremely dirty election company...
Top politician openly considered parliamentary elections as last tests of political powership before presidential race. A victory of "Unity" as all also expected has resulted in Yeltsin's preschedule resignation that should allow Putin on a wave of today's success to win in three months at preschedule presidential elections. If not will take place anything unexpected, namely the price for petroleum sharply will not fall, either the London or Parisian clubs will not take a rigid position in a question on return of duties Putin has very good chances to become the president. Today he has for this purpose all necessary: beginning from several billions dollars on traditional tips on the eve of elections, and finishing the consolidated political support of all large bourgeous parties.
A.Petrov